Population Projections

This topic area covers statistics and information relating to population projections in Hull including local strategic need and service provision. Further information relating to current Population Estimates including Race and Ethnicity are given within Population, and information relating to Housing including household structure is given within Tools and Resources.

Headlines

• It is essential for planning to understand the current population and future population numbers. This is not only in planning health care for older people which we know are projected to increase over time, but also for planning for other health needs associated with infants, children, maternity services, etc. as well as broader needs such as those associated with pre-school, education, employment and housing.
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2018. No new updates are available because new population estimates are currently being processed by ONS relating to the 2021 Census.
• It is projected that Hull’s population will increase very slightly from 260,600 in 2018 to 261,000 by 2028 (an increase of 0.15%), and to 262,100 by 2035 (an increase of 0.57%).
• This masks substantial differences across the age groups. It is projected that the number of people aged 0-9, 25-34 and 45-59 will decline in Hull between 2018 and 2028 with increases for all other age groups particularly among those aged 75-79 years where there will be an increase of around 30% (due to the post-World War II baby boom).
• Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet their needs. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs.

The Population Affected – Why Is It Important?

People at different ages and stages of their lives have different health needs. Thus in order to improve health and wellbeing, and reduce inequalities of the people living in Hull, it is essential to understand the population to determine current and future health needs so planning can take into account differences and changes over time. Those in the oldest age groups have the greatest health need and it is these age groups where it is projected that the largest relative increases will occur in the population due to advances in health care and people living longer.

The Hull Picture

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2018. No new updates are available because new population estimates are currently being processed by ONS relating to the 2021 Census.

ONS estimated that there were 260,060 residents in Hull in in 2018, and they project that this will increase very slightly to 262,100 by 2028 (an increase of 0.15%) and to 262,100 by 2043 (an increase of 0.57%).

Age	2018	2023	2028	2033	2038	2043
0-4	17,200	15,700	15,300	15,400	16,000	16,500
5-9	17,200	16,400	15,000	14,600	14,800	15,300
10-14	14,900	16,500	15,700	14,400	14,000	14,200
15-19	14,000	15,600	17,200	16,500	15,200	14,800
20-24	21,800	21,100	22,900	24,800	24,000	22,300
25-29	23,000	23,000	18,800	20,200	21,900	21,300
30-34	20,000	21,400	18,900	17,600	19,000	20,500
35-39	16,900	18,200	19,300	17,300	16,100	17,300
40-44	14,500	15,400	16,600	17,600	15,800	14,600
45-49	16,100	13,500	14,300	15,300	16,200	14,600
50-54	16,800	15,300	12,800	13,600	14,600	15,400
55-59	16,000	16,000	14,700	12,300	13,100	14,000
60-64	13,300	14,900	15,000	13,800	11,700	12,400
65-69	11,700	12,100	13,700	13,800	12,800	10,800
70-74	10,300	10,300	10,800	12,200	12,400	11,600
75-79	6,900	8,700	8,800	9,200	10,500	10,800
80-84	5,400	5,200	6,700	6,800	7,200	8,400
85-89	3,100	3,200	3,200	4,200	4,300	4,700
90+	1,500	1,400	1,500	1,600	2,100	2,300
All	260,600	261,000	261,000	261,400	261,700	262,100

Over the shorter term to 2028, ONS project a small decrease of 0.15% among the 0-19 year age group, alongside decreases of 2.2% and 7.9% among those aged 20-39 years and 40-59 years respectively, and increases of 14.5% and 14.0% among those aged 60-79 years and 80+ years respectively. These mask relatively large individual changes within five year age groups such as an increases of 22.9%, 14.2%, 14.5%, 12.8%, 17.1%, 27.5% and 24.1% among those aged 15-19, 35-39, 40-44, 60-64, 65-69, 75-79 and 80-84 years respectively, and decreases of 11.0%, 12.8%, 18.3%, 11.2% and 23.8% among those aged 0-4, 5-9, 25-29, 45-49 and 50-54 years respectively.

Over the longer term to 2043, ONS project decreases of 3.9%, 0.4% and 7.6% among those aged 0-19, 20-39 and 40-59 years respectively, and increases of 8.1% and 54.0% among those aged 60-79 and 80+ years respectively.

Among those aged 65+ years, it is projected that Hull’s population will increase by 14.9% by 2028 (from 38,900 in 2018 to 44,700 in 2028) and by 24.9% by 2043 (to 48,600). Among those aged 85+ years, it is projected that the population will increase by 2.2% from 4,600 in 2018 to 4,700 in 2028, but by 52% to 7,000 in 2043.

Strategic Need and Service Provision

Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet the needs of elderly people. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs. In the absence of other changes, the 25% increase in over 65s in Hull over the next 25 years will mean a similar 25% increase in service demand.

Resources

ONS population projections: www.ons.gov.uk

Updates

This page was last updated / checked on 23 November 2022.

This page is due to be updated / checked in July 2023.