Population Projections

This topic area covers statistics and information relating to population projections in Hull including local strategic need and service provision. Further information relating to current Population Estimates including Race and Ethnicity are given within Population, and information relating to Housing including household structure is given within Health and Wellbeing Influences.

Headlines

• It is essential for planning to understand the current population and future population numbers. This is not only in planning health care for older people which we know are projected to increase over time, but also for planning for other health needs associated with infants, children, maternity services, etc. as well as broader needs such as those associated with pre-school, education, employment and housing.
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years (although with a gap in 2020 due to COVID-19) with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2022.
• From the 2022-based population projections, it was projected that Hull’s population would increase from 268,700 in 2022 to 272,500 by 2027 (an increase of 1.4%), but would then fall very slightly in subsequent years to 271,100 by 2047 (an increase of 0.9% from 2022).
• This masked substantial differences across the age groups. It was projected that the number of people aged 0-9, 10-19, 30-39 and 50-59 would decline in Hull between 2022 and 2032 with increases for all other age groups particularly among those aged 80-84 years where there would be an increase of around 35% (due to the post-World War II baby boom).
• However, based on the 2022-based population projections for Hull, it was estimated that the population in 2023 would be around 271,200, but the the mid-year 2023 population estimates for Hull are 271,942 which is 0.3% higher than the projected population.
• Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet their needs. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs.

The Population Affected – Why Is It Important?

People at different ages and stages of their lives have different health needs. Thus in order to improve health and wellbeing, and reduce inequalities of the people living in Hull, it is essential to understand the population to determine current and future health needs so planning can take into account differences and changes over time. Those in the oldest age groups have the greatest health need and it is these age groups where it is projected that the largest relative increases will occur in the population due to advances in health care and people living longer.

The Hull Picture

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2022, released on 25 June 2025.

From the 2022-based population projections for Hull, it was estimated that the population in 2023 would be 271,200. However, the mid-year 2023 population estimates are 271,942 for Hull, which is 0.3% higher than the population projections.

Population Projections for Hull

From the 2022-based population projections, ONS estimated that there were 268,700 residents in Hull, and they projected that this would increase to 272,500 by 2027 (an increase of 1.4%), before then decreasing slightly in subsequent years to reach 271,100 by 2047 (an increase of 0.9% on 2022, but a decrease of 0.5% from 2027).

Age	2022	2027	2032	2037	2042	2047
0-4	15,800	14,200	13,600	13,300	13,300	13,100
5-9	17,100	15,500	13,900	13,400	13,200	13,100
10-14	17,300	16,800	15,200	13,700	13,200	13,000
15-19	16,200	18,500	17,900	16,400	15,000	14,500
20-24	18,100	20,400	22,100	21,400	20,100	18,700
25-29	20,200	17,900	18,400	19,800	19,400	18,300
30-34	21,400	21,300	19,000	19,500	20,900	20,400
35-39	19,300	21,200	20,700	19,000	19,400	20,700
40-44	16,600	18,600	20,100	19,800	18,300	18,700
45-49	15,600	16,000	17,700	19,200	18,900	17,700
50-54	17,000	14,900	15,200	16,900	18,300	18,100
55-59	17,000	16,000	14,100	14,400	16,000	17,400
60-64	15,300	15,900	15,000	13,200	13,600	15,100
65-69	12,600	14,000	14,700	13,900	12,200	12,700
70-74	10,900	11,100	12,500	13,100	12,600	11,100
75-79	8,200	9,100	9,300	10,600	11,300	10,900
80-84	5,100	6,200	6,800	7,100	8,300	8,900
85-89	3,300	3,000	4,000	4,400	4,700	5,600
90+	1,700	1,800	1,800	2,400	2,800	3,100
All	268,700	272,500	272,100	271,700	271,400	271,100

Over the shorter term to 2032, ONS project a decrease of 16.4% among the 0-9 year age group and a 13.8% decrease among the 50-59 year age group. Small decreases were also projected for the 10-19 and 30-39 age groups of 1.3% and 2.3% respectively. Increases are projected for all other age groups, with the largest increases seen in the 80-89 year age group (30.8%), the 40-49 year age group (17.5%) and the 70-79 year age group (13.7%). Increases of 6.7%, 5.6% and 3.2% were seen respectively for the 60-69, 20-29 and 90+ years age groups. These mask relatively large individual changes within five year age groups such as an increases of 35.4%, 23.7%, 21.2%, 21.9%, 16.7% and 14.3% among those aged 80-84, 85-89, 40-44, 20-24, 65-69 and 70-74 years respectively, and decreases of 18.4%, 17.4%, 14.2%, and 12.3% among those aged 5-9, 55-59, 0-4 and 10-14 years respectively.

Over the longer term to 2047, ONS project decreases of 20.3%, 17.9% and 3.4% among those aged 0-9, 10-19 and 20-39 years respectively, and increases of 14.7%, 74.8% and 75.0% among those aged 70-79, 80-89 and 90+ years respectively.

Among those aged 65+ years, it is projected that Hull’s population will increase by 17.6% by 2032 (from 41,700 in 2022 to 49,100 in 2032) and by 25.1% by 2047 (to 52,200). Among those aged 85+ years, it is projected that the population will increase by 16.5% from 5,000 in 2022 to 5,800 in 2032, but by 72.6% to 8,600 in 2047.

Strategic Need and Service Provision

Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet the needs of elderly people. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs. In the absence of other changes, the 25% increase in over 65s in Hull over the next 25 years will likely mean an even larger increase in demand for services.

Resources

ONS population projections: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections

Updates

This page was last updated / checked on 9 July 2025.

This page is due to be updated / checked in July 2027.