Index
This topic area covers statistics and information relating to climate change in Hull including local strategic need and service provision. Further information is also available about Hull and the environment can be found under Geographical Area within Place, and under Air Pollution within Health and Wellbeing Influences.
Headlines
- Due to its low-lying geography, Hull remains one of the UK locations most vulnerable to coastal and surface-water flooding.
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that we are currently experiencing the greatest change in the natural environment in human history.
- Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, increasing risks to health, particularly for older people and those with long-term conditions.
- The most recent decade (2016-2025) was the warmest decade in the UK temperature record, with 2025 becoming the warmest year ever recorded.
- The UK’s climate continues to warm. All of the ten warmest years in the UK temperature series since 1884 have occurred since 2003. The warmest year on record was 2025 (10.09°C), followed by 2022 (10.03°C) and 2023 (9.97°C), with 2024 the fifth warmest year recorded (9.78°C). In contrast, four of the six coolest years were between 1885 and 1892 which all had an average annual temperature of below 7.5° Celsius (as did 1919 and 1963).
- The average annual temperature in Hull has increased from between 9° Celsius and 10° Celsius for the period 1961 to 1990 to between 10° Celsius and 11° Celsius for the period 1991 to 2020.
- There were severe flooding events in Hull in 2007 and 2013 which had a significant impact on individuals and communities. The likelihood of these flooding events has increased because of global heating.
- Hull recorded temperatures of around 35°C during the July 2019 heatwave. This record was broken during the July 2022 heatwave when temperatures reached approximately 37°C, illustrating how rapidly extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense. These high temperature records are the consequences of only a 1.1° Celsius increase in global temperatures.
- The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate existing health inequalities.
- Climate adaptation is becoming increasingly important alongside carbon reduction.
- There is the potential for measures introduced to resolve one problem to be detrimental to other strategies, so full consultation and engagement between the different areas and an assessment of the impacts of any council actions is essential to ensure strategies complement each other.
The Population Affected – Why Is It Important?
Climate change is increasingly recognised as one of the most significant threats to public health in the 21st century. Rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, heavier rainfall events, sea level rise and an increased risk of flooding pose direct risks to health and wellbeing. These impacts are not experienced equally, with older people, young children, people with long-term health conditions, disabled people and those living in more deprived communities often at greatest risk.
The UK’s climate is already changing. The most recent decade (2016-2025) has been substantially warmer than previous decades, and 2025 became the warmest year recorded in the UK temperature series dating back to 1884. Evidence from the Met Office shows increasing frequency of extreme heat, accelerating sea level rise and more frequent periods of exceptionally wet weather.
Climate change presents both a mitigation challenge, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and an adaptation challenge, ensuring that communities, infrastructure and public services remain resilient to the impacts that are already unavoidable. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment identifies risks relating to overheating, flooding, coastal change, infrastructure failure, food security, water availability and the spread of infectious diseases and pests. Many of these risks have direct implications for public health and health inequalities.
The Paris Agreement set a global target to limit global heating to not more than 2° Celsius with an aim to keep temperature increase to no more than 1.5° Celsius. The science indicates that at global temperatures of 2° Celsius there is an increased danger of feedback loops in the natural world and the risk of cascade effects. For example, the melting of permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere which drives further temperature increase which drives increased permafrost melting.
The science of climate change clearly shows that actions by humans are driving these changes through a robust evidence contained in a number of reports published in 2021 and 2022 by the United Nations.
As a result of this the world is passing a number of tipping points for planetary boundaries covering air quality, climate change, water, and natural environment and other life supporting systems provided by earth. More information on planetary boundaries can be found here https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that we are currently experiencing the greatest change in the natural environment in human history. The threat of climate change as a result of the increase of greenhouse gases by human activity is pushing known planetary boundaries in areas such as species loss, air quality, natural resources and extreme weather events. The increasing global population expansion and dietary change to a more meat-based diet is putting pressure on agriculture and land use.
Climate change impacts on biodiversity (trees, plants, birds, animals, oceans, fish, corals, etc) with a decline of global biodiversity of 73% between 1970 and 2022.
Climate change is affecting the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as flooding, storms, forest and moorland fires and heat waves. These weather events impact the most vulnerable in society for example the young and old, and this with lifelong limiting illness, and those most economically disadvantaged, who are least able to recover from such events. We are seeing increased global carbon dioxide concentrations each year and even during the global COVID-19 pandemic concentrations in 2020 set a new record. This is driving increased temperature and new records being set for warmest years on record. Current scientific evidence published by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that the climate impacts we are experiencing are a result of only a 1.1° Celsius rise in global temperatures and the Paris Agreement has set a target to restrict global heating to well below 2° Celsius with an ambition to restrict to 1.5° Celsius.
In the 142 years from 1884 to 2025 inclusive, there has been a clear increase in average annual temperatures across the UK. The most recent decade (2016-2025) was 1.33°C warmer than the period 1961-1990.
There have been six years where the average annual temperature was below 7.5° Celsius. The lowest three temperatures all occurred in the 1800s (7.02° Celsius in 1892, 7.28° Celsius in 1888 and 7.36° Celsius in 1885) with the most recent year being 1963 which had the fourth coolest temperature since records began in 1884 (7.42° Celsius in 1919 and 7.45° Celsius in 1886 complete the list of the lowest six average annual UK temperatures).
The UK’s ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 2003, and four of the five warmest years have occurred since 2022. The warmest year on record was 2025 (10.09°C), exceeding the previous record set in 2022 (10.03°C)
The averages of the average annual temperatures were:
- 7.95° Celsius for the 16 years from 1884 to 1899 (range 7.02° Celsius to 8.88° Celsius)
- 8.29° Celsius for the 50 years from 1900 to 1949 (range 7.42° Celsius to 9.34° Celsius)
- 8.43° Celsius for the 50 years from 1950 to 1999 (range 7.41° Celsius to 9.41° Celsius)
- 9.32° Celsius for the 24 years from 2000 to 2023 (range 7.94° Celsius to 10.03° Celsius).
The average annual temperature varies throughout the UK depending on numerous factors such as latitude (the average annual temperature ranges from about 7° Celsius in the Shetlands to over 11° Celsius in Cornwall and the Channel Islands), altitude (decrease of about 0.5° Celsius for each 100 metres increase in altitude), and to some extent proximity to the coast. There is also a seasonal variation (over the year) and diurnal variation (over the day).
The average annual temperatures have increased between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 for most areas of the UK.
The UK Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019 has set a target to reduce carbon emissions by 100% by 2050 (from a 1990 baseline). In 2020 the UK’s average surface temperature had risen by 1.2° Celsius. Further, in 2022 the Government published the latest Climate Change Risk Assessment following advice from the Committee on Climate Change. The risk assessment looked at the impact of the risks and opportunities from climate change under a 2° Celsius and 4° Celsius global heating scenario.
This identified sixty-one risks and opportunities with thirty-four of them requiring more action within the next five years, to 2027. Twenty-two where more research was needed, four where we needed to sustain current action and three where we needed to maintain a watching brief.
Many of the risks either have a direct effect on people’s health such as heatwaves, flooding and increase in pathogens, or an indirect impact through affecting health functions to operate such as flooding of roads, buildings etc. The table below from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 provides a good starting point to understand the risks over the rest of the century.
The potential costs and damages (economic costs or forgone opportunities) are denoted with a negative sign, and possible opportunities are denoted with a positive sign. Where uncertainty exists over the category, the range has been indicated. For some of the risks and opportunities, there are both potential costs and benefits. The risks and benefits are denoted as follows:
- Very High (VH) is over £1 billion per year.
- High (H) is over hundreds of millions of pounds per year.
- Medium (M) is over tens of millions of pounds per year.
- Low (L) is less than ten million pounds per year.
There is therefore an imperative to increase the scale and pace of action to reduce carbon emissions, and to significantly increase adaptation activity to prepare for the inevitable consequences of climate change.
A third National Adaptation Programme was published in July 2023 that provides the action plan to address the risks identified, and covers the period 2024-2028. This risk assessment and Programme provide a sound strategic focus for joint strategic needs action.
In 2014, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation produced an evidence review of climate change and social justice. Their review identified five different forms of climate injustice in the UK context, and found that lower income and other disadvantaged groups contributed the least to causing climate change yet they were the most likely to be negatively impacted by its effects. They were also less able to participate in decision-making around policy responses.
In 2018, a revised webtool developed by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and University of Manchester, Climate Just, demonstrated that residents who were already vulnerable due to age, long term life limiting illnesses and poverty are least able to be resilient to the impacts of climate change and are more adversely affected than the average resident.
The Hull Picture
Hull is particularly vulnerable to some of the impacts of climate change because of its low-lying geography, proximity to the Humber Estuary and history of major flooding events. Climate-related risks for Hull include surface water flooding, tidal flooding, overheating during heatwaves, impacts on transport and infrastructure, and wider consequences for physical and mental health. Climate change is therefore both an environmental issue and a major determinant of future health and wellbeing within the city.
Hull has experienced several extreme weather events over the last twenty years that have put increased pressure on public health services. The floods in 2007 affected significant parts of the city with some families not being able to return to their homes for up to two years. The tidal surge in December 2013 closed the A63 and the Transpennine rail line, and the snow and ice winters in 2010 and 2011 affected roads with some impassable for weeks and increased the number of people suffering falls. Hull has experienced significant heatwaves in July 2019 with a new temperature record of 35° Celsius and only three years later in July 2022 this was broken with a new record of 37° Celsius. These heatwaves are likely to increase in intensity and frequency as the century progresses with increased pressure on health and care services.
Hull’s low-lying geography means that flooding remains one of the most important climate-related risks facing the city. Previous flooding events, including the 2007 floods and the 2013 tidal surge, demonstrated the widespread impacts that extreme weather can have on homes, businesses, transport networks and public services.
Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of intense rainfall events and contribute to rising sea levels, increasing the need for ongoing investment in flood resilience and climate adaptation. While flooding can cause damage to property and infrastructure, it can also have longer-term impacts on physical and mental health, including injury, disruption to healthcare, stress, anxiety and social isolation.
The impacts of flooding are not experienced equally across the population. Older people, people with disabilities, people with long-term health conditions and households experiencing deprivation may be less able to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding events. As a result, flood risk is also an issue of health inequality.
Building resilience to flooding is therefore not only an environmental challenge but also an important public health priority. Effective adaptation measures can help protect health, reduce inequalities and improve the resilience of communities, infrastructure and services to future climate risks.
The impacts of climate change will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and therefore put increased pressure on public health and health services in Hull.
In response to the increasing impacts of climate change and global heating Hull City Council declared a Climate Emergency in 2019 and produced the Hull 2030 Carbon Neutral Strategy in 2020 setting out the key challenges faced and an initial suite of actions.
In 2022 the Council agreed a 2045 net zero target for the city and a 2040 net zero target for the Council to bring the cities and Council’s ambitions in line with national climate action. This followed extensive research with the Carbon Trust to establish a science-based target for the city under a high ambition reduction scenario. This includes several carbon pathways for key sectors to meet the net zero target.
Strategic Need and Service Provision
Since January 2013, Hull City Council has held the highest Green Accreditation for its environmental management system, Investors in the Environment and undertaken work to reduce its carbon emissions in line with its corporate targets.
There is a need to better understand the extent of climate risk to public health and the wider health services in the City. The development of effective climate adaptation for services and facilities would ensure that they are more resilient to extreme weather events and therefore reduce the emergency impact on public health services.
It is necessary to work with partners to reduce the impact of extreme weather events and wider emergency events and seek assurance of preparedness, response and recovery when events happen. To create a natural and physical environment that is resilient to climate change.
The cost of extreme weather events to public health services is not well understood and there is a need to better understand the financial and human impacts so that this can support timely and effective climate adaptation investment. The experience of the significant flooding events have shaped how we build homes, support vulnerable residents and business and undertake resilience work at the city and community level. We have a greater understanding of how we interact with our environment and the key role it plays in improving public health as well as how it can affect people’s life chances. We also have a greater understanding and working relationship across service providers in how our actions impact each other and how through greater project integration we can build a whole system approach to the challenges.
Resources
Climate Change Explained. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1163722/climate-change-explained.pdf
The Paris Agreement. United Nations, Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
Climate Action. United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports
Average annual temperatures in the UK. Met Office, 1884 to 2026. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt
UK climate averages. Average maps. Met Office, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcxdqnhwn
Climate change impacts on biodiversity strips. https://biodiversitystripes.info/global/
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. UK Government. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2022
Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk. Climate Change Committee, 2021. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-of-uk-climate-risk/
Climate change: third national adaptation programme (2023 to 2028). UK Government, 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3
Climate change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=October%207%2C%202021-,Highlights,2020%3A%20412.5%20parts%20per%20million
2021 Tied for 6th Warmest Year in Continued Trend, NASA Analysis Shows. Global Climate Change, 2022. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3140/2021-tied-for-6th-warmest-year-in-continued-trend-nasa-analysis-shows/
What is climate change? Met Office. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/what-is-climate-change
The Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2019/1056/contents/made
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
Climate change and social justice: an evidence review. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2014. https://www.jrf.org.uk/climate-change-and-social-justice-an-evidence-review
National Adaptation Programme 2023. HM Government https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3
Updates
This page was last updated / checked on 12 October 2026.
This page is due to be updated / checked in November 2026.