This topic area covers statistics and information relating to Hull’s resident population including the age and gender structure of the local population, numbers registered with local GPs including local strategic need and service provision. Further information relating to population including Race and Ethnicity and Population Projections are given within Population, and information relating to Housing including household structure is given within Tools and Resources.
- People have different health and wellbeing needs at different ages and stages of their lives so it is important to understand the structure of the local population, not just in terms of their gender and current ages, but in terms of future projections of population numbers as well as other factors which influence health need such as deprivation, housing, employment, etc as well as where different groups of people live in the city. This is necessary in order to plan services, improve health and reduce inequalities.
- From the 2021 Census, it is estimated that 267,3000 people live in Hull (which is just over 8,000 people higher than the resident population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics in 2020). From the Census, it is estimated that there are 115,500 households with at least one usual resident.
- Hull has a relatively large population aged 20-39 years. Young people tend to move into cities to both study and work, so Hull is no different from many other cities.
- The percentage of the population aged 40+ years is lower than England, and whilst the percentage aged 65+ years in Hull is lower than England, it is due to increase over time.
- Whilst the geographical boundaries are the same for the local authority and the Clinical Commissioning Group (and its successor Hull’s Health and Care Partnership), the populations differ. In general, the local authority commissions services for the residents whereas the CCG provides care for the patients registered with GP practices within Hull. From the GP registration file in January 2022, a total of 310,753 people were registered with a Hull GP and/or lived in Hull. Overall, 279,488 were registered with a Hull GP and lived in Hull, 4,208 lived in Hull but were registered with a GP outside of Hull (mainly East Riding of Yorkshire) and 27,057 were registered with a Hull GP but lived outside of Hull (virtually all living in East Riding of Yorkshire). Overall, 306,545 patients were registered with Hull GPs.
- Based on the GP registration file, 283,696 people lived in Hull which is considerably higher (by almost 25,000) than the ONS resident population estimate. Both estimates are subject to incorrect assumptions or errors, but it is likely that the GP registration file overestimates the population. It is also possible that the ONS estimate slightly underestimates the resident population.
- When delivering care through primary care, the differences in the populations need to be considered as around one in 11 patients registered with Hull GPs live in East Riding of Yorkshire.
The Population Affected – Why is it Important?
In order to improve health and reduce inequalities, it is important to understand the make-up of the local population. People at different ages and stages of their lives have different health needs. Furthermore, people from different backgrounds defined on the basis of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) group, socio-economic group, deprivation and poverty, gender, age, sexuality, religion and other factors may seek professional medical help to a lesser or greater degree or have problems accessing services compared to others. Certain geographical areas will have higher proportions of specific populations such as couples with young families, older people, students, and other groups and this will influence the health needs for different geographical areas. Understanding the population is an essential tool in determining current and future health needs in order to plan services, improve health and reduce inequalities.
The Hull Picture
From the 2021 Census, it is estimated that 267,300 people live in Hull. This is around 8,000 higher than the mid-year resident population estimates from the Office for National Statistics over the last few years for 2020 (259,126), 2019 (259,778) and 2018 (260,645), and almost 24,000 people higher than estimates from the 2001 Census (243,589).
Each five year age band from 0-4 to 60-64 contains between 5.6% and 6.5% (between 15,000 and 17,400 people) of the overall population with the exception of those aged 20-39 years which are slightly higher (between 7.0% and 7.8%) due to the student population and young population living in the city (between 18,700 and 20,800 people). Overall, there are an estimated 40,800 people aged 65+ years living in Hull representing 15.3% of Hull’s total population.
Around one quarter (24.6%) of Hull’s population was aged 0-19 years, just under one-quarter (22.6%) aged 20-34 years, one quarter (25.4%) aged 35-54 years and just over one-quarter (27.3%) aged 55+ years.
The population pyramid shows the age and gender structure of Hull’s population compared to England.
For each five year age group, there are higher percentages of people aged under 40 years living in Hull. In Hull, the majority of the population are aged under 40 years (54.2%) compared to around half of the population for England (49.5%).
The table below gives the estimated number of residents in Hull from the 2021 Census five year age group (figures rounded to the nearest 100).
The table below gives the estimated number of residents in Hull from the 2021 Census for each 10 year age group.
The population in Hull is relatively young compared to England as a whole. Cities tend to have younger populations due to students and younger people wanting to live in cities, and more families and older people tending to want to live in suburbs and in the countryside. In 2020, the median age of Hull’s population was 35.9 years and Hull was ranked 39th lowest (out of 339 lower-tier local authorities in England). This means that half of Hull’s population in 2020 is estimated to be aged under 35.9 years and half of Hull’s population is estimated to be aged over 35.9 years. Oxford had the lowest median age at 28.6 years whereas North Norfolk had the highest median age at 54.7 years. The median age of Hull’s neighbouring East Riding of Yorkshire was 49.5 years (ranked 313 lowest of the lower-tier local authorities in England).
Between mid-year 2019 and mid-year 2020, there were 3,178 births and 2,734 deaths in Hull giving an natural increase of 444 in Hull’s population. In terms of internal migration, the Office for National Statistics estimated that there were there was an estimate inflow of 10,020 people coming into Hull over the year and an estimated 12,078 people leaving Hull in the year thus a reduction of 2,058 people overall. For international migration, there were an estimated 2,381 people coming into Hull and 1,425 people leaving Hull giving a net gain of 956 people due to international migration. There were a a further increase of six people due to special circumstances such as armed forces and prison population.
Hull is 71.6 kilometres square and thus – from the 2021 Census – it is estimated that there are 3,733 residents per square kilometre.
In 2020, it was estimated that there were 3,620 residents per square kilometre. Of the London Boroughs, 29 out of 33 had higher population densities (only Richmond upon Thames at 3,452, Hillingdon at 2,671, Havering at 2,320 and Bromley at 2,216 are lower). Excluding the London Boroughs (Tower Hamlets had the highest population density at 16,791 residents per square kilometre), Hull was ranked as having the 19th highest density after Portsmouth (at 5,315 residents per square kilometre), Southampton, Lutton, Leicester, Manchester, Slough, Nottingham, Watford, Liverpool, Southend-on-Sea, Birmingham, Bristol, Reading, Blackpool, Coventry, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Norwich.
The change between the ONS population estimates for mid-year 2020 and the 2021 Census for Hull are given in the table below. The largest differences (7% or more) occur among those aged 15-19 years, 35-44 years, 50-54 years, 60-64 years and 90+ years.
|Age||2021 Census||ONS 2020||Difference (N)||Difference (%)|
Patient Population Registered with Local GPs
Based on the general practice registration file for January 2022, the estimated resident population is slightly higher than the Office for National Statistics’ estimate for Hull at 283,696 residents with 306,545 patients registered with general practices in Hull. A total of 310,753 people are either registered with a Hull GP as a patient or live in Hull based on the GP registration file for January 2022.
Of the 310,753 people who either live in Hull or who are registered with a Hull GP, nine in ten of them both living in Hull and registered with a Hull GP (279,488 people). Of the estimated 283,696 residents from the GP registration file, 279,488 are registered with Hull GPs, 3,799 are registered with East Riding of Yorkshire GPs and 409 are registered with GPs outside Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire. Of the 306,545 patients registered with Hull GPs, 279,488 live in Hull, 26,922 live in East Riding of Yorkshire and 135 live outside of Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire. Thus 8.8% of all patients registered with Hull GPs do not live in Hull.
|Resident||Hull GP||ERoY GP||Other GP||Total registered population|
|Resident of Hull||279,488||3,799||409||283,696|
|Resident of ERoY||26,922||26,922|
Comparison of Resident and Registered Populations
The total estimated resident population from the GP registration file is considerably different from the estimated number of residents from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year estimates and the 2021 Census. The ONS estimated that 259,126 people lived in Hull in 2020, but the GP registration file has an estimate of 283,696 which is 24,570 higher or 9.5% higher. Whilst the estimated number of residents in Hull has increased based on the 2021 Census, the GP registration file still has an estimated resident population that is 16,396 or 6.1% higher.
ONS produce annual estimates based on the Census, ageing people each year, adding births and subtracting deaths, and adding adjustments to estimate local, national and international migration. Whilst it is a legal requirement to complete a Census form, the Census is an underestimate as not everybody completes the Census particularly men, younger people and those living in the most deprived areas. ONS adjust the figures to try to account for this under-count. However, it is likely that the largest error component is from the estimations due to migration as this can be difficult to quantify. ONS uses the GP registrations to estimate local and national migration, and there are other sources of data to estimate international migration, but these data sources are not complete and comprehensive. The estimates for 2020 were based on the 2011 Census, and there has been a noticeable revision in Hull’s population estimate following the 2021 Census. ONS tend to ‘back’ estimate the resident population following the release of population estimates from the Census so it likely that the population estimates for the last few years including for 2020 will be revised by ONS in 2022.
Whilst the GP registration file is a count of real people, it is not necessarily more accurate. People who move house do not always inform their GP of their new address, and they do not always register with a new GP practice if they have moved too far to attend their GP practice. Once someone registers with a new GP they are automatically removed from the practice list of their old practice (but this will not happen if they move abroad). Thus it is possible that people move to Hull and live in Hull some time before registering with a local GP, and people can move away from Hull but not update their GP with their new address or change their GP to a practice local to where they move. This is particularly the case for young people especially men, who generally use their GP less frequently.
Thus both the ONS and GP registration file estimates of resident population will not be totally accurate. In general, the ONS population estimates are used as the official figures for resident population estimates. It is possible that they underestimate the population slightly, but it is likely that the GP registration file overestimates the resident population.
Strategic Need and Service Provision
At different life-stages, people have very different needs. For instance, among areas with a high percentage of families, maternal health, breastfeeding, vaccinations, and a good start in life are important issues. Students and young people may need advice and support in relation to lifestyle and behavioural factors such as alcohol and smoking, mental health, and sexual health. People of working age may have needs in relation to employment, mental health, sexual health, and lifestyle and behavioural risk factors, such as smoking and diet. Older people will tend to have more long-term conditions, and needs in relation to falls and hip fractures, dementia, and mental health including social isolation.
Because of the approximately 27,000 “extra” people registered with Hull GPs, but residing in East Riding of Yorkshire, if services are delivered through primary care, account needs to be taken of these non-Hull residents on the lists of Hull general practices.
As well as understanding the gender and current age structure of the local population, it is important to examine the future projections for the age and gender structure of the population (see Population Projections also under Population) as well as other factors which influence health need such as deprivation, housing, employment, etc (see Health and Wellbeing Influences) as well as where different groups of people live in the city (see Ward and Area Committee Profiles under Place).
Office for National Statistics population estimates: www.ons.gov.uk
Office for National Statistics. Census 2021. https://census.gov.uk/
NHS Digital for patients registered at each GP practice: https://digital.nhs.uk/
This page was last updated on 13 July 2022.
This page is due to be updated / checked in November 2022.