Population Estimates

This topic area covers statistics and information relating to Hull’s resident population including the age and gender structure of the local population, numbers registered with local GPs including local strategic need and service provision. Further information relating to population including Race and Ethnicity and Population Projections are given within Population, and information relating to Housing and Households including household composition is given within Tools and Resources.

Headlines

• People have different health and wellbeing needs at different ages and stages of their lives so it is important to understand the structure of the local population, not just in terms of their gender and current ages, but in terms of future projections of population numbers as well as other factors which influence health need such as deprivation, housing, employment, etc as well as where different groups of people live in the city. This is necessary in order to plan services, improve health and reduce inequalities.
• From the 2021 Census, it is estimated that 267,020 people live in Hull (which is just under 8,000 people higher than the resident population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics in 2020). From the Census, it is estimated that there are 115,500 households with at least one usual resident.
• Hull has a relatively large population aged 20-39 years. Young people tend to move into cities to both study and work, so Hull is no different from many other cities.
• The percentage of the population aged 40+ years is lower than England, and whilst the percentage aged 65+ years in Hull is lower than England, it is due to increase over time.
• The age structure of the population differs across Hull with Kingswood, Marfleet and Orchard Park having the highest percentage of children aged 0-9 years, University, Orchard Park and North Carr having the highest percentages aged 10-19 years. Kingswood, Central and Newington & Gipsyville have the highest percentages aged 20-29 and 30-39 years, and Kingswood, Avenue and Central have the highest percentages aged 40-49 years. Holderness, Boothferry and Drypool have the highest percentages aged 50-59 years, and Sutton, Ings and Bricknell have the highest percentages aged 60-69 years. Pickering, Sutton and West Carr have the highest percentages aged 70-79 years, Pickering, Ings and Sutton have the highest percentages aged 80-89 years, and Bricknell, Ings and Pickering have the highest percentages aged 90+ years.
• Whilst the geographical boundaries are the same for the local authority and the Clinical Commissioning Group (and its successor Hull’s Health and Care Partnership or sub Integrated Care Board), the populations differ. In general, the local authority commissions services for the residents whereas the sub-ICB provides care for the patients registered with GP practices within Hull. From the GP registration file in July 2023, a total of 315,274 people were registered with a Hull GP and/or lived in Hull. Overall, 285,785 were registered with a Hull GP and lived in Hull, 3,743 lived in Hull but were registered with a GP outside of Hull (mainly East Riding of Yorkshire) and 25,746 were registered with a Hull GP but lived outside of Hull (virtually all living in East Riding of Yorkshire). Overall, 311,531 patients were registered with Hull GPs.
• Based on the GP registration file, 289,528 people lived in Hull which is considerably higher (by over 20,000 people) than the resident population estimate from the 2021 Census. Both estimates are subject to incorrect assumptions or errors, but it is likely that the GP registration file overestimates the population. It is also possible that the Census and the annual mid-year estimates from the Office of National Statistics slightly underestimates the resident population.
• When delivering care through primary care, the differences in the populations need to be considered as just under one in every 12 patients registered with Hull GPs live in East Riding of Yorkshire (or 8.4% of all patients overall), although this varies dramatically Hull’s 29 GP practices (from just above zero to around half of patients).

The Population Affected – Why is it Important?

In order to improve health and reduce inequalities, it is important to understand the make-up of the local population. People at different ages and stages of their lives have different health needs. Furthermore, other characteristics such as ethnicity, socio-economic group, deprivation, poverty, gender, age, sexuality, religion and other factors may have differing health needs and also seek professional medical help to a lesser or greater degree or have problems accessing services compared to others. Certain geographical areas will have higher proportions of specific populations such as couples with young families, older people, students, and other groups and this will influence the health needs for different geographical areas. Understanding the population is an essential tool in determining current and future health needs in order to plan services, improve health and reduce inequalities.

The Hull Picture

Resident Population

From the 2021 Census, it is estimated that 267,020 people live in Hull. This is just under 8,000 higher than the mid-year resident population estimates from the Office for National Statistics over the last few years for 2020 (259,126), 2019 (259,778) and 2018 (260,645), and over 23,000 people higher than estimates from the 2001 Census (243,589).

There was an even split in Hull between men (133,231) and women (133,789).

Each five year age band from 0-4 to 60-64 contains between 5.6% and 6.5% (between 14,928 and 17,345 people) of the overall population with the exception of those aged 20-39 years which are slightly higher (between 7.0% and 7.8%) due to the student population and young population living in the city (between 18,706 and 20,818 people). Overall, there are an estimated 40,825 people aged 65+ years living in Hull representing 15.3% of Hull’s total population.

Around one quarter (24.5%) of Hull’s population was aged 0-19 years, just under one-quarter (25.6%) aged 20-36 years, one quarter (25.2%) aged 37-56 years and just over one-quarter (24.7%) aged 57+ years.

The population pyramid shows the age and gender structure of Hull’s population compared to England.

For each five year age group, there are higher percentages of people aged under 40 years living in Hull. In Hull, the majority of the population are aged under 40 years (54.2%) compared to around half of the population for England (49.5%).

The table below gives the estimated number of residents in Hull from the 2021 Census five year age group. The figures from the Census do differ very slightly (by a handful of individuals) depending on the geographical level presented, and whether both age or gender are being presented.

Age	Males	Females	Persons
0-4	8,166	7,788	15,954
5-9	8,848	8,497	17,345
10-14	8,577	8,159	16,736
15-19	8,023	7,464	15,487
20-24	9,779	9,646	19,425
25-29	9,909	10,311	20,220
30-34	10,199	10,619	20,818
35-39	9,408	9,298	18,706
40-44	8,095	7,707	15,802
45-49	8,337	7,967	16,304
50-54	8,835	8,418	17,253
55-59	8,665	8,552	17,217
60-64	7,448	7,480	14,928
65-69	6,096	6,124	12,220
70-74	5,573	5,809	11,382
75-79	3,283	3,814	7,097
80-84	2,268	2,965	5,233
85-89	1,200	1,997	3,197
90-94	433	931	1,364
95-99	79	213	292
100+	7	31	38
All ages	133,228	133,790	267,018

The table below gives the estimated number of residents in Hull from the 2021 Census for each 10 year age group.

Age	Males	Females	Persons
0-9	17,014	16,285	33,299
10-19	16,600	15,623	32,223
20-29	19,688	19,957	39,645
30-39	19,607	19,917	39,524
40-49	16,432	15,674	32,106
50-59	17,500	16,970	34,470
60-69	13,544	13,604	27,148
70-79	8,856	9,623	18,479
80-89	3,468	4,962	8,430
90+	522	1,174	1,696
All ages	133,231	133,789	267,020

The population in Hull is relatively young compared to England as a whole. Cities tend to have younger populations due to students and younger people wanting to live in cities, and more families and older people tending to want to live in suburbs and in the countryside. In 2020, the median age of Hull’s population was 35.9 years and Hull was ranked 39th lowest (out of 339 lower-tier local authorities in England). This means that half of Hull’s population in 2020 is estimated to be aged under 35.9 years and half of Hull’s population is estimated to be aged over 35.9 years. Oxford had the lowest median age at 28.6 years whereas North Norfolk had the highest median age at 54.7 years. The median age of Hull’s neighbouring East Riding of Yorkshire was 49.5 years (ranked 313 lowest of the lower-tier local authorities in England).

Between mid-year 2019 and mid-year 2020, there were 3,178 births and 2,734 deaths in Hull giving an natural increase of 444 in Hull’s population. In terms of internal migration, the Office for National Statistics estimated that there were there was an estimate inflow of 10,020 people coming into Hull over the year and an estimated 12,078 people leaving Hull in the year thus a reduction of 2,058 people overall. For international migration, there were an estimated 2,381 people coming into Hull and 1,425 people leaving Hull giving a net gain of 956 people due to international migration. There were a a further increase of six people due to special circumstances such as armed forces and prison population.

Hull is 71.6 kilometres square and thus – from the 2021 Census – it is estimated that there are 3,733 residents per square kilometre.

In 2020, it was estimated that there were 3,620 residents per square kilometre. Of the London Boroughs, 29 out of 33 had higher population densities (only Richmond upon Thames at 3,452, Hillingdon at 2,671, Havering at 2,320 and Bromley at 2,216 are lower). Excluding the London Boroughs (Tower Hamlets had the highest population density at 16,791 residents per square kilometre), Hull was ranked as having the 19th highest density after Portsmouth (at 5,315 residents per square kilometre), Southampton, Lutton, Leicester, Manchester, Slough, Nottingham, Watford, Liverpool, Southend-on-Sea, Birmingham, Bristol, Reading, Blackpool, Coventry, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Norwich.

The change between the ONS population estimates for mid-year 2020 and the 2021 Census for Hull are given in the table below. The largest differences (7% or more) occur among those aged 15-19 years, 35-44 years, 50-54 years, 60-64 years and 90+ years.

Age	2021 Census	ONS 2020	Difference (N)	Difference (%)
0-4	15,954	16,575	–621	–3.7
5-9	17,345	17,170	175	1.0
10-14	16,736	15,806	930	5.9
15-19	15,487	14,286	1,201	8.4
20-24	19,425	20,135	–710	–3.5
25-29	20,220	21,262	–1,042	–4.9
30-34	20,818	20,807	11	0.1
35-39	18,706	17,435	1,271	7.3
40-44	15,802	14,408	1,394	9.7
45-49	16,304	15,441	863	5.6
50-54	17,253	16,049	1,204	7.5
55-59	17,217	16,364	853	5.2
60-64	14,928	13,951	977	7.0
65-69	12,220	11,608	612	5.3
70-74	11,382	10,934	448	4.1
75-79	7,097	6,887	210	3.0
80-84	5,233	5,405	–172	–3.2
85-89	3,197	3,114	83	2.7
90+	1,696	1,489	207	13.9
All ages	267,020	259,126	7,894	3.0

Resident Population By Electoral Ward

Total Resident Population

Newington & Gipsyville, St Andrew’s & Docklands and Orchard Park have the largest resident populations in Hull whereas Ings, Bricknell and Pickering have the smallest resident populations.

There is a relatively even split between males and females for all wards in Hull with St Andrew’s & Docklands (54.0%), Central (53.9%) and Beverley & Newland (52.6%) having the highest percentages of males.

Ward	Males	Females	Persons
Avenue	6,531	6,177	12,708
Beverley & Newland	8,226	7,423	15,649
Boothferry	5,759	6,074	11,833
Bricknell	4,253	4,242	8,495
Central	5,857	5,002	10,859
Derringham	5,718	6,042	11,760
Drypool	6,175	5,876	12,051
Holderness	5,974	6,033	12,007
Ings	4,497	4,812	9,309
Kingswood	4,972	4,929	9,901
Longhill & Bilton Grange	6,114	6,745	12,859
Marfleet	6,534	7,196	13,730
Newington & Gipsyville	8,663	8,336	17,029
North Carr	7,132	7,721	14,853
Orchard Park	7,724	8,348	16,072
Pickering	4,072	4,355	8,427
St Andrew’s & Docklands	9,006	7,678	16,684
Southcoates	7,732	7,329	15,061
Sutton	6,509	6,888	13,397
University	5,712	6,088	11,800
West Carr	6,054	6,743	12,527

Age Distribution of Residents Across Hull’s Wards

The household composition and type of properties differs across Hull’s wards, for instance, Kingswood is a ward with a high percentage of younger families, and there are a high percentage of students living near the University. Further information relating to household composition can be found in Housing and Households under Health and Wellbeing Influences. The household composition of the different wards will influence the age distribution across Hull’s electoral wards as illustrated in the following table.

Statistical disclosure control was used to protect the confidentiality of individuals. This meant that where there were small numbers, data strategies were employed such as swapping records to different geographical areas based on matching characteristics and by adding ‘noise’ to some data cells using a ‘cell-key-method’ to further protect records. Therefore, it is likely that the one person recorded as being aged 90+ years living in Kingswood has been subject to statistical disclosure so it is possible that the number of residents is not exactly one, but perhaps between zero and say ten.

Ward	0-9	10-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79	80-89	90+
Avenue	1,241	1,265	2,088	2,086	1,872	1,698	1,265	807	314	72
Beverley & Newland	1,489	1,418	3,669	2,404	1,723	1,906	1,379	1,040	544	77
Boothferry	1,298	1,192	1,410	1,604	1,475	1,759	1,460	1,074	483	78
Bricknell	863	996	1,056	1,022	1,027	1,222	1,062	796	342	109
Central	1,369	1,214	1,834	1,880	1,576	1,292	890	540	217	47
Derringham	1,283	1,150	1,611	1,646	1,313	1,735	1,365	1,026	528	103
Drypool	1,306	1,188	1,683	1,846	1,572	1,784	1,328	866	352	116
Holderness	1,273	1,306	1,423	1,563	1,604	1,874	1,419	1,014	402	75
Ings	1,042	1,059	1,067	1,145	989	1,344	1,173	878	496	116
Kingswood	1,695	1,208	1,530	2,162	1,490	1,069	521	186	39	1
Longhill & Bilton Grange	1,826	1,738	1,486	1,707	1,416	1,511	1,502	1,074	471	128
Marfleet	2,317	1,880	1,896	1,992	1,380	1,680	1,293	816	394	82
Newington & Gipsyville	2,462	2,115	2,530	2,948	2,106	2,099	1,536	819	358	56
North Carr	2,275	2,222	2,166	2,167	1,775	1,854	1,199	824	321	50
Orchard Park	2,664	2,428	2,075	2,420	1,750	1,841	1,502	857	455	80
Pickering	943	918	916	1,070	919	1,203	1,013	900	451	94
St Andrew’s & Docklands	2,038	1,760	3,042	2,878	2,096	2,023	1,487	837	424	99
Southcoates	1,815	1,745	2,038	2,253	1,868	1,945	1,657	1,115	516	109
Sutton	1,454	1,474	1,493	1,734	1,531	1,883	1,774	1,331	613	110
University	1,204	2,258	3,288	1,347	1,189	982	784	491	220	37
West Carr	1,446	1,629	1,341	1,650	1,428	1,775	1,512	1,205	489	52

The following points can be made by summarising the above table for each age group:

• Aged 0-9 years: Kingswood (17.1%) has the highest percentage aged 0-9 years, followed by Marfleet (16.9%) and Orchard Park (16.6%), whereas Bricknell (10.2%), Avenue (9.8%) and Beverley & Newland (9.5%) have the lowest percentages aged 0-9 years.
• Aged 10-19 years: University (19.1%) has the highest percentage aged 10-19 years, followed by Orchard Park (15.1%) and North Carr (15.0%), whereas Drypool (9.9%), Derringham (9.8%) and Beverley & Newland (9.1%) have the lowest percentages aged 10-19 years.
• Aged 20-29 years: Kingswood (21.8%) has the highest percentage aged 30-39 years, followed by Central (17.3%) and Newington & Gipsyville (17.3%), whereas Ings (12.3%), Bricknell (12.0%) and University (11.4%) have the lowest percentages aged 30-39 years.
• Aged 30-39 years: Kingswood (21.8%) has the highest percentage aged 30-39 years, followed by Central (17.3%) and Newington & Gipsyville (17.3%),whereas Ings (12.3%), Bricknell (12.0%) and University (11.4%) have the lowest percentages aged 30-39 years.
• Aged 40-49 years: Kingswood (15.0%) has the highest percentage aged 40-49 years, followed by Avenue (14.7%) and Central (14.5%), whereas Ings (10.6%), University (10.1%) and Marfleet (10.1%) have the lowest percentages aged 40-49 years.
• Aged 50-59 years: Holderness (15.6%) has the highest percentage aged 50-59 years, followed by Boothferry (14.9%) and Drypool (14.8%), whereas Orchard Park (11.5%), Kingswood (10.8%) and University (8.3%) have the lowest percentages aged 50-59 years.
• Aged 60-69 years: Sutton (13.2%) has the highest percentage aged 60-69 years, followed by Ings (12.6%) and Bricknell (12.5%), whereas North Carr (8.1%), University (6.6%) and Kingswood (5.3%) have the lowest percentages aged 60-69 years.
• Aged 70-79 years: Pickering (10.7%) has the highest percentage aged 70-79 years, followed by Sutton (9.9%) and West Carr (9.6%), whereas Newington & Gipsyville (4.8%), University (4.2%) and Kingswood (1.9%) have the lowest percentages aged 70-79 years.
• Aged 80-89 years: Pickering (5.4%) has the highest percentage aged 80-89 years, followed by Ings (5.3%) and Sutton (4.6%), whereas Central (2.0%), University (1.9%) and Kingswood (0.4%) have the lowest percentages aged 80-89 years.
• Aged 90+ years: Bricknell (1.3%) has the highest percentage aged 90+ years, followed by Ings (1.2%) and Pickering (1.1%), whereas Newington & Gipsyville (0.3%), University (0.3%) and Kingswood (0.0%) have the lowest percentages aged 90+ years.

In terms of other age groups:

• Aged 0-4 years: Kingswood (8.4%) has the highest percentage aged 0-4 years, followed by Marfleet (8.2%) and Orchard Park (8.0%), whereas Bricknell (4.8%), Holderness (4.8%) and Avenue (4.8%) have the lowest percentages aged 0-4 years.
• Aged 0-19 years: Orchard Park (31.7%) has the highest percentage aged 0-19 years, followed by Marfleet (30.6%) and North Carr (30.3%), whereas Derringham (20.7%), Avenue (19.7%) and Beverley & Newland (18.6%) have the lowest percentages aged 0-19 years.
• Aged 20-39 years: University (39.3%) has the highest percentage aged 20-39 years, followed by Beverley & Newland (38.8%) and Kingswood (37.3%), whereas West Carr (23.9%), Ings (23.8%) and Pickering (23.6%) have the lowest percentages aged 20-39 years.
• Aged 40-64 years: Holderness (35.6%) has the highest percentage aged 40-64 years, followed by Drypool (34.3%) and Boothferry (34.2%), whereas Marfleet (27.6%), Orchard Park (27.5%) and University (22.0%) have the lowest percentages aged 40-64 years.
• Aged 65+ years: Pickering (22.7%) has the highest percentage aged 65+ years, followed by Sutton (21.7%) and Ings (21.7%), whereas Central (10.9%), University (9.4%) and Kingswood (4.0%) have the lowest percentages aged 65+ years.
• Aged 80+ years: Ings (6.6%) has the highest percentage aged 80+ years, followed by Pickering (6.5%) and Sutton (5.4%), whereas Newington & Gipsyville (2.4%), University (2.2%) and Kingswood (0.4%) have the lowest percentages aged 80+ years.

Parts of Kingswood, North Carr, Orchard Park, Marfleet, and Newington & Gipsyville have the highest percentages of the resident population aged 0-4 years.

Parts of Kingswood, North Carr, Orchard Park, Marfleet, Longhill & Bilton Grange, At Andrew’s & Docklands and Newington & Gipsyville have the highest percentages of the resident population aged 0-9 years.

Parts of North Carr, Orchard Park, Longhill & Bilton Grange, Marfleet, Southcoates and University have the highest percentages of the resident population aged 0-19 years.

Parts of Kingswood, North Carr, Marfleet and Southcoates have the highest percentages of resident population aged 20-39 years together with areas around the city centre (St Andrew’s & Docklands and Central) and around the University (University, Bricknell and Beverley & Newland).

Parts of Kingswood, Sutton, Longhill & Bilton Grange, Holderness, Southcoates, Drypool, Avenue , Boothferry and Bricknell have the highest percentages of people aged 40-59 years.

The areas of the city with the highest percentages of residents aged 60-69 years is quite scattered across the city with Kingwood, North Carr, Orchard Park, University, the southern parts of Beverley & Newland, and areas around the city centre the least likely to have the highest percentages of those aged 60-69 years.

The highest percentages of people aged 70-79 years tends to be in an arch around the city centre with the highest percentages in Pickering, Newington & Gipsyville, Boothferry, Derringham, Bricknell, northern Beverley & Newland, West Carr, Holderness, Sutton, Ings and Longhill & Bilton Grange.

The same areas that tend to have higher percentage of people aged 70-79 years also have a high percentage aged 80+ years, namely, Pickering, Newington & Gipsyville, Boothferry, Derringham, Bricknell, northern Beverley & Newland, Sutton, Ings and Longhill & Bilton Grange.

Kingswood, North Carr, University, Orchard Park, southern parts of Beverley & Newland, Avenue, Newington & Gipsyville, St Andrew’s & Docklands, Drypool, Southcoates and Marfleet tend to have the lowest percentages of those aged 60+ years.

The household composition also differs across Hull (more maps are included within Housing and Households within Health and Wellbeing Influences). A higher percentage of households are single person households of people aged under 66 years around the city centre, with a high percentage of multiple occupancy households (mainly students) near the University, and a mix of families with children and older people to the north, east and west of the city centre with a particularly high percentage of households containing dependent children in Kingwood and North Carr.

Patient Population Registered with Local GPs

Based on the general practice registration file for July 2023, the estimated resident population is slightly higher than the Office for National Statistics’ estimate for Hull at 289,528 residents with 285,785 patients registered with general practices in Hull. A total of 315,274 people are either registered with a Hull GP as a patient or live in Hull based on the GP registration file for July 2023.

Of the 315,274 people who either live in Hull or who are registered with a Hull GP, almost 91% of them are both living in Hull and registered with a Hull GP (285,785 people). Of the estimated 289,528 residents from the GP registration file, 285,785 are registered with Hull GPs, 3,560 are registered with East Riding of Yorkshire GPs and 183 are registered with GPs outside Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire. Of the 311,531 patients registered with Hull GPs, 285,785 live in Hull, 25,628 live in East Riding of Yorkshire, and 118 live outside of Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire. Thus 8.3% of all patients registered with Hull GPs do not live in Hull. Thus, if services are delivered within primary care, this discrepancy in the population is an important consideration.

Of the 123 patients who live beyond East Riding of Yorkshire, 44 live in North Lincolnshire, 20 live in Doncaster and 17 live in North East Lincolnshire, but the remaining 42 patients are recorded as living in local authorities throughout England. It is possible that some of these patients lived in the city and moved away but have not yet changed their GP, and may not be an ‘active’ patient. However, it is possible that some of the patients living elsewhere do live in the city and have recorded another address as part of the GP registration process, for example, parental address given for students, or that they work in the city or divide their time between two different addresses, and may be an ‘active’ patient for the practice.

Resident	Hull GP	ERoY GP	Other GP	Totals
Resident of Hull	285,785	3,560	183	289,528
Resident of ERoY	25,628			25,628
Resident elsewhere	118			118
Totals	311,531	3,560	183	315,274

The total number of patients registered with Hull general practices also differs substantially ranging from 2,752 registered patients for Delta Healthcare to 56,532 registered patients for Modality Hull.

As at July 2023, all 29 practices in Hull have patients registered with them who live in East Riding of Yorkshire and 23 practices have patients who live beyond East Riding of Yorkshire. The percentage of their patients who live within East Riding of Yorkshire or other local authorities varies across Hull’s 29 GP practices from 0.6% to 51.8%. This includes a very small percentage who live beyond East Riding of Yorkshire. The highest percentages are 0.3% for Dr Hendow, and 0.2% for both CHCP – City Centre and Delta Healthcare. Goodheart Surgery, Kingston Health (Hull), Princes Medical Centre, James Alexander Practice, Newland Health Centre, Sydenham House Group Practice, Wilberforce Surgery and Wolseley Medical Centre all have 0.1% of their patients living beyond East Riding of Yorkshire. The other 11 practices have patients registered with them who live beyond East Riding of Yorkshire but they represent 0.0% of their patients (when the percentage is rounded to one decimal place).

As the Modality Hull practice operates as a single Primary Care Network (PCN), this PCN has the highest percentage of patients living in East Riding of Yorkshire at around one in every five patients. One in ten patients in HASP and Symphonie PCNs also live in East Riding of Yorkshire.

Practice / PCN	Total patients	Lives in Hull %	Lives in ERoY %	Lives elsewhere %
Goodheart Surgery	6,511	97.3	2.6	0.1
Laurbel Surgery	3,422	48.2	51.8	0.0
Kingston Health (Hull)	9,962	90.8	9.2	0.1
Raut Partnership	4,647	96.8	3.2	0.0
Orchard 2000	9,245	96.1	3.9	0.0
HASP	33,787	90.0	10.0	0.0
Dr Hendow	2,793	91.4	8.4	0.3
Princes Medical Centre	7,362	96.3	3.6	0.1
James Alexander Practice	12,652	96.8	3.2	0.1
Marmot	22,807	96.0	4.0	0.1
East Hull Family Practice	29,986	97.2	2.8	0.0
Medicas	29,986	97.2	2.8	0.0
Marfleet Group Practice	14,992	98.6	1.4	0.0
Clifton House Medical Centre	8,437	96.1	3.9	0.0
The Avenues Medical Centre	6,996	88.5	11.5	0.0
Newland Health Centre	7,779	93.1	6.8	0.1
Acclaim	38,204	95.1	4.9	0.0
Modality Hull	56,532	81.7	18.3	0.0
Modality	56,532	81.7	18.3	0.0
Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park	17,475	95.9	4.1	0.0
Haxby – Calvert & Newington	13,877	91.6	8.4	0.0
Haxby – Burnbrae Surgery	5,202	99.7	0.6	0.0
Haxby	36,554	94.8	5.2	0.0
CHP – Southcoates	13,339	96.9	3.1	0.0
The Bridge Group	8,579	92.8	7.2	0.0
Sutton Manor Surgery	7,633	95.3	4.7	0.0
CHCP – City Centre	17,973	95.7	4.1	0.2
CHCP – East Park	3,427	97.7	2.3	0.0
Venn	50,951	95.6	4.3	0.1
St Andrew’s Group Practice	8,084	92.4	7.6	0.0
Sydenham House Group Practice	7,933	88.3	11.7	0.1
Wilberforce Surgery	5,122	96.7	3.2	0.1
Wolseley Medical Centre	7,471	93.6	6.3	0.1
The Oaks Medical Centre	7,894	81.6	18.4	0.0
Hastings Medical Centre	3,454	84.6	15.4	0.0
Symphonie	39,958	89.6	10.4	0.0
Delta Healthcare	2,752	97.3	2.5	0.2
Unclassified	2,752	97.3	2.5	0.2
Hull	311,531	91.7	8.2	0.0

More than half of all patients registered with the Laurbel Surgery live in East Riding of Yorkshire, and nearly one in five patients live in East Riding of Yorkshire for Modality Hull and The Oaks Medical Centre. More than one in ten patients live in East Riding of Yorkshire for The Avenues Medical Centre, Sydenham House Group Practice and the Hastings Medical Centre.

The age distribution of the patients registered with Hull practices also differs.

Newland Health Centre has a high proportion of students registered with the practice and as a result has a much different age structure of their patients compared to all other practices in Hull. Just under half (49.5%) of all its patients are aged 20-29 years. Of all 29 practices, it has the highest percentage of patients aged 17-19 and 20-29 years, and the lowest percentage of patients aged aged 0-4, 5-11, 12-16, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 years.

Excluding Newland Health Centre, the following statements can be made in relation to the age distribution of patients:

• Aged 0-4 years: The percentage of the population aged 0-4 years ranges from 3.9% for Clifton House Medical Centre to 8.6% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park.
• Aged 5-11 years: The percentage of the population aged 5-11 years ranges from 6.1% for Wilberforce Surgery to 12.7% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park.
• Aged 12-16 years: The percentage of the population aged 12-16 years ranges from 3.4% for Wilberforce Surgery to 7.7% for Orchard 2000.
• Aged 17-19 years: The percentage of the population aged 17-19 years ranges from 2.2% for Wilberforce Surgery to 4.1% for Goodheart Surgery.
• Aged 20-29 years: The percentage of the population aged 20-29 years ranges from 7.7% for Laurbel Surgery to 20.7% for Wilberforce Surgery.
• Aged 30-39 years: The percentage of the population aged 30-39 years ranges from 11.5% for Laurbel Surgery to 22.8% for Wilberforce Surgery.
• Aged 40-49 years: The percentage of the population aged 40-49 years ranges from 10.0% for Dr Hendow to 16.7% for Princes Medical Centre.
• Aged 50-59 years: The percentage of the population aged 50-59 years ranges from 9.6% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park to 17.1% for Dr Hendow.
• Aged 60-69 years: The percentage of the population aged 60-69 years ranges from 6.4% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park to 16.3% for Laurbel Surgery.
• Aged 70-79 years: The percentage of the population aged 70-79 years ranges from 3.4% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park to 14.0% for Laurbel Surgery.
• Aged 80-89 years: The percentage of the population aged 80-89 years ranges from 1.1% for Wilberforce Surgery to 6.7% for Hastings Medical Centre.
• Aged 90+ years: The percentage of the population aged 90+ years ranges from 0.2% for Haxby – Kingswood & Orchard Park to 1.3% in Haxby – Burnbrae Surgery.

Comparison of Resident and Registered Populations

The total estimated resident population from the GP registration file is considerably different from the estimated number of residents from Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates for 2020 and the estimates from the 2021 Census. From ONS’s mid-year estimates for 2020, it was estimated that 259,126 people lived in Hull, so the GP registration file gives an estimate of 30,402 residents higher (or 11.7% higher). From the 2021 Census, it was estimated that 267,020 people live in Hull and the GP registration file gives the number of residents as 22,508 higher (or 8.4% higher).

ONS produce annual estimates based on the Census, ageing people each year, adding births and subtracting deaths, and adding adjustments to estimate local, national and international migration. Whilst it is a legal requirement to complete a Census form, the Census is an underestimate as not everybody completes the Census particularly men, younger people and those living in the most deprived areas. ONS adjust the figures to try to account for this under-count. However, it is likely that the largest error component is from the estimations due to migration as this can be difficult to quantify. ONS uses the GP registrations to estimate local and national migration, and there are other sources of data to estimate international migration, but these data sources are not complete and comprehensive. The estimates for 2020 were based on the 2011 Census, and there has been a noticeable revision in Hull’s population estimate following the 2021 Census. ONS are due to ‘back-date’ their estimates the resident population over the last few years in Autumn 2023.

Whilst the GP registration file is a count of real people, it is not necessarily more accurate. People who move house do not always inform their GP of their new address, and they do not always register with a new GP practice if they have moved too far to attend their GP practice. Once someone registers with a new GP they are automatically removed from the practice list of their old practice (but this will not happen if they move abroad). Thus it is possible that people move to Hull and live in Hull some time before registering with a local GP, and people can move away from Hull but not update their GP with their new address or change their GP to a practice local near to where they move. This is particularly the case for young people especially men, who generally use their GP less frequently.

Thus both the ONS and GP registration file estimates of resident population will not be totally accurate. In general, the ONS population estimates and the Census estimates are used as the official figures for resident population estimates. It is possible that they underestimate the population slightly, but it is likely that the GP registration file overestimates the resident population.

Strategic Need and Service Provision

At different life-stages, people have very different needs. For instance, among areas with a high percentage of families, maternal health, breastfeeding, vaccinations, and a good start in life are important issues. Students and young people may need advice and support in relation to lifestyle and behavioural factors such as alcohol and smoking, mental health, and sexual health. People of working age may have needs in relation to employment, mental health, sexual health, and lifestyle and behavioural risk factors, such as smoking and diet. Older people will tend to have more long-term conditions, and needs in relation to falls and hip fractures, dementia, and mental health including social isolation.

Because approximately 26,000+ “extra” people registered with Hull GPs live in East Riding of Yorkshire, if services are delivered through primary care, account needs to be taken of these non-Hull residents on the lists of Hull general practices.

As well as understanding the gender and current age structure of the local population, it is important to examine the future projections for the age and gender structure of the population (see Population Projections also under Population) as well as other factors which influence health and the need for health services such as Race and Ethnicity, and other factors such as deprivation, housing, employment, etc (see Health and Wellbeing Influences) as well as where different groups of people live in the city (see Ward and Area Committee Profiles under Place).

Resources

Office for National Statistics population estimates: www.ons.gov.uk

Office for National Statistics. Census 2021. https://census.gov.uk/

NHS Digital for patients registered at each GP practice: https://digital.nhs.uk/

Updates

This page was last updated / checked on 6 November 2023.

This page is due to be updated / checked in December 2023.